AXBOROT MAHSULOTLARI BIZNESINI RIVOJLANTIRISHNING KO‘P OMILLI EKONOMETRIK MODELI: OLS VA ARDL TAQQOSLASH
Kalit so'zlar
https://doi.org/10.47390/SPR1342V6SI1Y2026N08Kalit so'zlar
OLS, ARDL, ekonometrik model, ko‘p omilli regression, kointegrasiya, AKT eksport, O‘zbekiston.Annotasiya
Maqolada O‘zbekiston axborot mahsulotlari biznesini rivojlantirishning ko‘p omilli ekonometrik modeli OLS va ARDL usullari asosida tahlil qilindi. 96 oylik ma’lumotlar (2017-2024) asosida AKT eksportiga ta’sir etuvchi to‘rtta omil (xodimlar, xizmatlar, internet, e-tijorat) baholandi. Level OLS modeli yuqori R²=97,12% ko‘rsatdi, ammo multikollinearlik (VIF=11,58), avtokorrelyatsiya (DW=0,21) muammolari aniqlandi. Birinchi farqli OLS multikollinearlikni 88% kamaytirdi, avtokorrelyatsiyani bartaraf etdi, diagnostik testlar 33%dan 67%ga yaxshilandi. ARDL modeli eng ishonchli bo‘lib, barcha 6/6 diagnostik testdan o‘tdi, kointegrasiya tasdiqlandi. Uzoq muddatli elastikliklar: LABOR 1,83*** (eng kuchli), SERVICES 0,75***, INTERNET 0,63***, ECOMMERCE 0,15***. Qisqa muddatda SERVICES eng barqaror (1,00***), ECOMMERCE manfiy (-0,07*** substitution effect). Asosiy xulosa: LABOR strategik omil, qisqa va uzoq muddatli siyosat turlicha bo‘lishi kerak. Takliflar: kadrlar tayyorlashga uzoq muddatli investitsiya, ichki bozorni rivojlantirish, raqamli infratuzilmani modernizatsiya qilish.
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