AXBOROT MAHSULOTLARI BIZNESINI RIVOJLANTIRISHNING KO‘P OMILLI EKONOMETRIK MODELI: OLS VA ARDL TAQQOSLASH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47390/SPR1342V6SI1Y2026N08Ключевые слова:
OLS, ARDL, ekonometrik model, ko‘p omilli regression, kointegrasiya, AKT eksport, O‘zbekiston.Аннотация
Maqolada O‘zbekiston axborot mahsulotlari biznesini rivojlantirishning ko‘p omilli ekonometrik modeli OLS va ARDL usullari asosida tahlil qilindi. 96 oylik ma’lumotlar (2017-2024) asosida AKT eksportiga ta’sir etuvchi to‘rtta omil (xodimlar, xizmatlar, internet, e-tijorat) baholandi. Level OLS modeli yuqori R²=97,12% ko‘rsatdi, ammo multikollinearlik (VIF=11,58), avtokorrelyatsiya (DW=0,21) muammolari aniqlandi. Birinchi farqli OLS multikollinearlikni 88% kamaytirdi, avtokorrelyatsiyani bartaraf etdi, diagnostik testlar 33%dan 67%ga yaxshilandi. ARDL modeli eng ishonchli bo‘lib, barcha 6/6 diagnostik testdan o‘tdi, kointegrasiya tasdiqlandi. Uzoq muddatli elastikliklar: LABOR 1,83*** (eng kuchli), SERVICES 0,75***, INTERNET 0,63***, ECOMMERCE 0,15***. Qisqa muddatda SERVICES eng barqaror (1,00***), ECOMMERCE manfiy (-0,07*** substitution effect). Asosiy xulosa: LABOR strategik omil, qisqa va uzoq muddatli siyosat turlicha bo‘lishi kerak. Takliflar: kadrlar tayyorlashga uzoq muddatli investitsiya, ichki bozorni rivojlantirish, raqamli infratuzilmani modernizatsiya qilish.
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