MULTIFACTOR ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF INFORMATION PRODUCTS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT: COMPARISON OF OLS AND ARDL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47390/SPR1342V6SI1Y2026N08Keywords:
OLS, ARDL, econometric model, multifactor regression, cointegration, ICT export, Uzbekistan.Abstract
The article analyzes a multifactor econometric model for the development of Uzbekistan’s information products business based on OLS and ARDL methods. Based on 96 monthly observations (2017-2024), four factors affecting ICT exports were evaluated (employment, services, internet, e-commerce). Level OLS model showed high R²=97.12%, but revealed multicollinearity (VIF=11.58) and autocorrelation (DW=0.21) problems. First-difference OLS reduced multicollinearity by 88%, eliminated autocorrelation, diagnostic tests improved from 33% to 67%. ARDL model proved most reliable, passing all 6/6 diagnostic tests, cointegration confirmed. Long-run elasticities: LABOR 1.83*** (strongest), SERVICES 0.75***, INTERNET 0.63***, ECOMMERCE 0.15***. Short-run: SERVICES most stable (1.00***), ECOMMERCE negative (-0.07*** substitution effect). Main conclusion: LABOR strategic factor, short and long-run policies should differ. Recommendations: long-term investment in training, domestic market development, digital infrastructure modernization.
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